||William K. -M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser
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In the Preface to the First Edition of this book, we wrote about the goal to provide a one-stop reference text on intraseasonal variability to bridge the gap between weather forecasts, and climate predictions. We seek to further this goal in the Second Edition. The years since the publication of the First Edition have seen significant advances in our understanding of the physical processes, multiscale interactions, and predictability associated with intraseasonal variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. These advances have been achieved by the scientific community at large through the increased capabilities in high-resolution global modeling and data assimilation, in-depth theoretical studies, and improved diagnostics mostly from new global satellite observations and improved reanalysis products. At present, a realistic simulation of the Madden and Julian Oscillation is considered a prerequisite for climate models to produce reliable predictions of inter-annual variability and longer term projections of regional impacts and extreme events from climate change. Common metrics for MJO prediction and diagnostics have been developed and adopted by the scientific community so that model validations and empirical forecasts of the MJO can be compared and evaluated. Operational forecast centers such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, the U.K. Meteorological Office, and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, among many others, are producing routine forecasts of the MJO. Predictions of onsets and breaks in major monsoon regions around the world are now focused on the propagation and evolution of regional intraseasonal oscillations. International and national organizations such as the World Climate Research Programme and the World Weather Research Programme have joined to sponsor working groups and task forces to organize international projects and workshops to facilitate and coordinate research on the MJO and ISOs. The science community has now coined the term "seamless prediction" to address the continuum of temporal and spatial scales linking weather and climate. Indeed, the MJO and associated regional ISOs represent critical linkages between global weather forecasts and regional climate predictions. Another critical factor spurring the recent rapid advance in our understanding of the MJO and ISO phenomena was the advent of a series of NASA Earth-observing satellites launched between the early 2000s and the present. As a result, the scientific community has access to unprecedented information regarding propagation, horizontal and vertical structures of rainfall, clouds, moisture, and temperature. Such information is essential to define the characteristics of the MJO and associated regional ISOs and their far-field impacts. Other derived quantities such as latent heating profiles and cloud microphysics derived from satellite data and field campaigns are setting the stage for the next level of understanding and improved model fidelity associated with the MJO and ISOs. Studies documenting the influence of the MJO on ozone, aerosols, and carbon dioxide fluctuations in the atmosphere and in ocean productivity are emerging, further demonstrating the far-reaching importance of the MJO and ISOs not only in the physical domain but also in the biogeochemical component of the climate system. Given these momentous recent developments, the Second Edition of the book seems opportune...