- - - - - - download - - - - - -
The importance of being able to model the consequences of hydrocarbon accident events offshore is discussed. Using the specific example of structural collapse caused by hydrocarbon fire, an attempt is made to estimate the magnitude of errors typically associated with risk analyses. Those areas which, on the basis of current knowledge, are likely to generate the largest errors are identified. The reduction of such errors is seen to depend on the application of expertise which spans a number of disciplines. Finally the manner in which a risk analysis should be used is discussed given the errors that will typically be present.